Traffic Analysis Toolbox Volume III: Guidelines for Applying Traffic Microsimulation Modeling Software 2019 Update to the 2004 Version

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U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590

FHWA-HOP-18-036

April 2019

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Table of Contents

[ Notice and Quality Assurance Statement ] | [ Technical Report Documentation Page ] | [ Foreword Regarding the 2019 Update ] | [ SI* (Modern Metric) Conversion Factors ]

Acknowledgements

Introduction
	Guiding Principles of Microsimulation
	Overview of the Microsimulation Analytical Process
	Organization of This Document
Chapter 1. Microsimulation Analysis Planning
	Establish Project Purpose
	Select Key Performance Measures
	Define Scope
	Develop the Analytical Approach
	Estimate Required Resources
	Prepare a Preliminary Analysis Plan
	Example Problem: Alligator City
	Key Points
Chapter 2. Data Collection and Analysis
	Identify Data Sources
		Data for Base Model Development
		Data for Determining Travel Conditions
		Data for Calibration
	Assemble Contemporaneous Data
	Verify Data Quality
	Identify Travel Conditions Using Cluster Analysis
	Example Problem: Data Collection and Analysis
	Key Points
Chapter 3. Base Model Development
	Specify Model Input Data
		Link-Node Diagram: Model Blueprint
		Link Geometry Data
		Traffic Control Data
		Traffic Operations and Management Data
		Traffic Demand Data
		Driver Behavior Data
		Event Data
		Simulation Run Control Data
		Coding Techniques for Complex Situations
	Example Problem: Base Model Development
	Key Points
Chapter 4. Error Checking
	Review Software Errors
	Review Input Errors
	View Animation
	Residual Errors
	Key Decision Point
	Example Problem: Error Checking
	Key Points
Chapter 5. Model Calibration
	Overview of the Calibration Process
	Identify Representative Days
	Prepare Variation Envelopes
		Select Calibration Performance Measures
		Creating Variation Envelopes
	Calibrate Model Variant to Meet Acceptability Criteria
		Adjust Parameters Influencing Bottleneck Throughput
		Adjust Parameters Affecting Dynamic Travel Demand and Assignment
		Perform Test Against Acceptability Criteria
	Example Problem: Model Calibration
	Key Points
Chapter 6. Alternatives Analysis
	Forecast Future Demands
	Represent Alternatives
	Determine Required Number of Replications
	Test Differences in Alternatives Performance
		Perform Hypothesis Testing
		Perform Sensitivity Testing
	Example Problem: Alternative Analysis
	Key Points
Chapter 7. Final Report
	Preparing the Results Briefing
	Preparing the Final Report
	Key Points
Appendix A. Work Zone Case Study in the Seattle I-405 Corridor
Appendix B. Glossary
Acknowledgements
References

List of Figures

Figure 1	Diagram. The Microsimulation Analytical Process
Figure 2	Diagram. Step 1: Microsimulation Analysis Planning
Figure 3	Map. Key Features of the Alligator City Example Problem
Figure 4	Diagram. Step 2: Data Collection and Analysis
Figure 5	Diagram. Step 3: Base Model Development
Figure 6	Diagram. Example of link node diagram
Figure 7	Diagram. Link-Node Diagram for Alligator City
Figure 8	Diagram. Step 4: Error Checking
Figure 9	Diagram. Step 5: Model Calibration
Figure 10	Chart. Plot of Variation Envelope for Eastbound AM Travel Times, West Hills to Alligator City
Figure 11	Chart. Assessing Criterion I, Alligator City
Figure 12	Chart. Assessing Criterion II, Alligator City
Figure 13	Diagram. Step 6: Alternative Analysis
Figure 14	Diagram. Step 7: Final Report
Figure 15	Map. I-405 Geographical Coverage
Figure 16	Map. Bottleneck Locations
Figure 17	Chart. Plot of Heuristic Index Calculation Results
Figure 18	Diagram.I-405 Travel Condition Dartboard
Figure 19	Chart. Travel Time and Bottleneck Throughput Profiles for Each Travel Condition
Figure 20	Map. Locations for Demand Adjustment
Figure 21	Chart. Variation Envelope and Calibration Results for Low Demand Travel Condition
Figure 22	Chart. Variation Envelope and Calibration Results for Low Visibility Travel Condition
Figure 23	Chart. Variation Envelope and Calibration Results for Weather + Incidents Travel Condition
Figure 24	Chart. Variation Envelope and Calibration Results for Many Incidents Travel Condition
Figure 25	Chart. Variation Envelope and Calibration Results for Bottleneck Trouble Travel Condition
Figure 26	Chart. Variation Envelope and Calibration Results for Few Incidents Travel Condition
Figure 27	Map. Sinkhole Damaged Sections
Figure 28	Chart. Travel Time Profiles of Alternatives
Figure 29	Chart. South Bound Travel Time Profile for Low Demand Travel Condition
Figure 30	Chart. South Bound Travel Time Profile for Many Incidents Travel Condition
Figure 31	Chart. Total Cost (Hard Cost and Soft Cost) Computation
Figure 32	Chart. Planning Time Index

List of Tables

Table 1	Data Assembled for Travel Conditions Identification (Step 1)
Table 2	Example Transformation of Incident Qualitative Data into Numeric Data (Step 2)
Table 3	Transforming Qualitative Data onto Quantitative Scale (Step 2)
Table 4	Normalizing Data (Step 3)
Table 5	Iteration 0 - Preliminary Assignment of Data into Clusters (Step 5.3)
Table 6	Calculating Cluster Means (Step 5.4)
Table 7	Calculating Distance to Cluster Centroids and Assigning to Nearest Cluster (Steps 5.5-5.6)
Table 8	Example node numbering convention
Table 9	Time-Variant Travel Times, West Hills Eastbound to Alligator City
Table 10	Differences Comparing Individual Days and the Average for the Travel Condition, Expressed as a Percentage of the Time Variant Averages
Table 11	Travel Time Variation Envelope Band Calculation, Alligator City
Table 12	Assessing Criteria III and IV, Alligator City
Table 13	Aggregate Results from Alligator City Alternative Analysis
Table 14	Sum of Squared Error and Average Coefficient of Variation for Different Number of Clusters
Table 15	Sum of Squared Error for Each Cluster Group
Table 16	A Summary of Cluster Analysis Results
Table 17	Summary of Acceptability Criteria Calculation Results
Table 18	Total Additional Delay Calculation using Traditional Approach
Table 19	Delay Estimation Method in Travel Conditions Alternatives Analysis
Table 20	Total Additional Delay Calculation using Travel Conditions Approach