Behavioral/Agent-Based Supply Chain Modeling Research Synthesis and Guide

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U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590

FHWA-HOP-18-003

March 2018

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Notice

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the use of the information contained in this document.

The U.S. Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trademarks or manufacturers' names appear in this report only because they are considered essential to the objective of the document.

Quality Assurance Statement

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) provides high-quality information to serve Government, industry, and the public in a manner that promotes public understanding. Standards and policies are used to ensure and maximize the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of its information. FHWA periodically reviews quality issues and adjusts its programs and processes to ensure continuous quality improvement.

Foreword

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Office of Operations in cooperation with the Office of Infrastructure is pleased to present this publication titled “Use of Freeway Shoulders for Travel - Guide for Planning, Evaluating, and Designing Part-Time Shoulder Use as a Traffic Management Strategy” (Shoulder Use Guide).

As defined in this Guide, part-time shoulder use converts paved roadside shoulders to an area used for travel during portions of the day as a congestion relief strategy. It is sometimes known as temporary shoulder use or hard shoulder running, and is typically implemented on freeways. When evaluated as part of a Performance-Based Practical Design (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/design/pbpd/) alternative, part-time shoulder use can be a cost-effective solution to improving operations and safety by providing additional capacity when it is needed most, while preserving the use of a shoulder as a refuge area during the majority of the day. In some cases, shoulder use applications can serve as an interim solution to highway capacity constraints while agencies further study and / or acquire the necessary resources for adding general purpose travel lanes.

Part-time shoulder use is a common practice in some European countries and has been gaining interest in the U.S. There are currently over 30 shoulder use installations in operation across the country covering 14 states. While there is much variety in these applications, the most frequent approach to date is the use of freeway shoulders by transit vehicles during peak period times of the day. Despite the growing interest, there is a lack of guidance and standards to help practitioners through the process of evaluating potential shoulder use implementations.

Based on interviews with agencies that have deployed shoulder use treatments, interviews with Federal Highway Administration subject matter experts, and research on relevant safety and operations effects and analytical techniques, this Guide synthesizes information and best practices. While questions remain in some areas of the Guide and more experience with shoulder use and additional research is needed to provide more specific direction to practitioners, this Guide outlines a process and covers a range of issues including planning, design, implementation, and day-to-day operation that will help agencies advance shoulder use concepts in their states in a more consistent manner.

The FHWA Office of Operations is supporting this Guide through workshops and related technical assistance. If you have any comments on this material, seek further assistance, or wish to discuss opportunities for hosting a workshop, please contact Jim Hunt jim.hunt@dot.gov or Greg Jones GregM.Jones@dot.gov from the Office of Operations or Robert Mooney Robert.Mooney@dot.gov from the Office of Infrastructure.

Robert Arnold
Director Office of Transportation Management
Office of Operations, FHWA

Tom Everett
Director Office of Program Administration
Office of infrastructure, FHWA

Technical Documentation Page

1. Report No. Publication #: FHWA-HOP-18-003	2. Government Accession No.	3. Recipient's Catalog No.
4. Title and Subtitle Behavioral/Agent-Based Supply Chain Modeling Research Synthesis and Guide		5. Report Date January 2018
		6. Performing Organization Code FHWA-HOFM
7. Author(s) Kaveh Shabani, RSG Maren Outwater, RSG Daniel Murray, ATRI		8. Performing Organization Report No.
9. Performing Organization Name and Address RSG 55 Railroad Row White River Junction, VT 05001		10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)
		11. Contract or Grant No. DTFH61-12-D-00049
12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Office of Operations 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE Washington, DC 20590		13. Type of Report and Period Covered Final Report
		14. Sponsoring Agency Code HOFM
15. Supplementary Notes This project was performed by RSG and American Transportation Research Institute with Kittelson & Associates, Inc. support Project Title: Behavioral/Agent-Based Supply Chain Modeling Research Synthesis and Guidance Document
16. Abstract There are now a handful of public agencies in the United States that have developed, or are in the process of developing, behavioral/agent-based models of supply chain decisions and freight movements, due in part to funding from FHWA Broad Agency Announcement awards and the SHRP2 C20 program. This guidance document provides a vital role in ensuring that the experiences of early adopters are more widely disseminated, thereby enabling other public agencies to develop similar models, or at least assess their feasibility.
17. Key Words Supply Chain, Freight Modeling, Behavioral, Commodity Flow		18. Distribution Statement No restrictions.
19. Security Classification (of this report) Unclassified	20. Security Classification (of this page) Unclassified	21. No of Pages 150	22. Price

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72)
Reproduction of completed page authorized.

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Table of Contents

[ SI Conversion Factors ] [ Abbreviations ]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION
	PROJECT PURPOSE AND NEED
	APPROACH
		Methodology
		Data
	CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT
CHAPTER 2. SUPPLY CHAIN MODELING AND NEEDS
	FREIGHT MODELING NEEDS
	COMMON MODELING METHODS
		Firm Synthesis
		Allocation of Freight Demand
		Transportation Logistics Chain Models
	TOUR-BASED TRUCK MODELS
	MODEL APPLICATIONS
CHAPTER 3. FREIGHT MODEL DATA AND RESOURCES
	COMMON DATASETS
		Commodity Flow Data
		Employment and Establishment Data
		Industry Economic Accounts Data
	DATA AND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
		Data Available for Model Inputs
		Availability of Data for Estimating Model Parameters
		Data for Model Calibration and Validation
CHAPTER 4. AGENCY EXPERIENCES WITH BEHAVIORAL/AGENT-BASED SUPPLY CHAIN MODELS
	CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AGENCY FOR PLANNING
		Methodology
		Data
	FLORIDA STATEWIDE
		Methodology
		Data
	WISCONSIN
		Methodology
		Data
	PHOENIX
		Methodology
		Data
	OREGON STATEWIDE
		Methodology
		Data
	MARYLAND STATEWIDE/BALTIMORE REGION
		Methodology
		Data
	PORTLAND METRO
		Methodology
		Data
	SUMMARY
CHAPTER 5. BEHAVIORAL/SUPPLY CHAIN FREIGHT MODEL ASSESSMENT
	FREIGHT MODEL DESIGN
		Current Freight Model Structures
		Desired Geographic and Temporal Coverage
		Desired Market Coverage
		Forecasting Methods
		Staff Resources for Data Processing and Model Maintenance
		Consideration of Phased Approaches to Development
	COLLABORATION OPPORTUNITIES (PUBLIC SECTOR PARTNERSHIPS)
CHAPTER 6. FREIGHT PERFORMANCE MEASURES
	FREIGHT MODEL STATISTICS
	PUBLIC SECTOR PERFORMANCE METRICS
		Transportation System Performance
		Safety
		Environmental Sustainability
		Economic Indices
		System Preservation
	PRIVATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE MEASURES
		Operations
		Financial
		Safety
CHAPTER 7. SHARING OF DATA BETWEEN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR
	PROPRIETARY DATA AND PRIVACY ISSUES
	VEHICLE-LEVEL DATA ISSUES
	MACRO SUPPLY CHAIN DATA ISSUES
	FREEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT
	STATE SUNSHINE LAWS
	INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
	DATA-SHARING REQUIREMENTS AND EXPECTATIONS
APPENDIX A. DATA PRIVACY LITERATURE—KEY CONCEPTS
APPENDIX B. SAMPLE NONDISCLOSURE AGREEMENT
APPENDIX C. A CASE STUDY IN SUCCESSFUL PRIVATE SECTOR DATA SHARING WITH GOVERNMENT
	UTILIZING TRUSTED THIRD PARTIES
	FHWA NEEDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR A TRUSTED THIRD-PARTY INTERFACE
		Data Access
		Data Continuity/Sustainability
		FPM System Design and Management
		Converting Proprietary to Public
		Understanding Public Sector Transportation Planning Activities
		Industry Expertise Needed to Analyze Outputs
		FPM Users
References

List of Figures

• Figure E-1. Behavioral Supply Chain Modeling Process.
• Figure 2. Behavioral Supply Chain Modeling Process.
• Figure 3. Supplier Firm Selection Model Process.
• Figure 4. Commodity Flow Allocation Model.
• Figure 5. Distribution Channels.
• Figure 6. Distribution Channel Model Process.
• Figure 7. Shipment Size and Frequency Model Process.
• Figure 8. Mode and Intermediate Transfer Model Process.
• Figure 9. Truck-Touring Model Steps.
• Figure 10. FAF Domestic Zones.
• Figure 11. FAF International Zones.
• Figure 12. CMAP National-Scale Supply Chain Model Process.
• Figure 13. CMAP Regional-Scale Truck-Touring Model Process.
• Figure 14. CMAP Statewide TAZs.
• Figure 15. CMAP Regional TAZs.
• Figure 16. FreightSIM National Supply Chain Model Structure.
• Figure 17. FAF Zones and Counties In Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.
• Figure 18. Statewide Traffic Zone System (Florida, Georgia, and Alabama).
• Figure 19. Wisconsin Freight Model Structure.
• Figure 20. Individual Components Of The Proposed Behavior-Based Freight Model.
• Figure 21. MAG Behavior-Based Supply Chain and Freight Transportation Framework.
• Figure 22. Sun Corridor Megaregion.
• Figure 23. MAG Freight Model Zone System.
• Figure 24. SWIM Overall Model Structure.
• Figure 25. SWIM modeled area zone system.
• Figure 26. MSTM and BMC Model System.
• Figure 27. Components of the Supply Chain Model, SHA/BMC Model.
• Figure 28. SHA/BMC Model Zone System, North American Extent of MSTM Zones.
• Figure 29. SHA/BMC Model Zone System, Maryland, and HALO Extent of MSTM Zones.
• Figure 30. SHA/BMC Model Zone System, Extent of BMC Regional Zones.
• Figure 31. Metro Supply Chain Model Structure.
• Figure 32. Metro Model Zone System, North American Extent.
• Figure 33. Metro Model Zone System, Oregon and Surrounding States.
• Figure 34. Metro Model Zone System, Metro Model Region.
• Figure 35. Two Examples of Phasing with a Commercial Vehicle Survey.
• Figure 36. Two Examples of Phasing, by Model System Component.
• Figure 37. Example of Peak-Hour Congestion.

List of Tables

• Table 1. Summary of Freight Modeling Needs, by Type.
• Table 2. Example IO Accounts “USE” Table (Sample Data View).
• Table 3. Primary Data Sources by Modeling Needs and Availability.
• Table 4. Data Sources for FreightSIM.
• Table 5. FreightSIM Model Validation Tests.
• Table 6. Wisconsin Model’s Commodities and Industries.
• Table 7. Wisconsin Supply Chain Model’s Mode and Vehicle Type.
• Table 8. SWIM Transport modes and vehicle types.
• Table 9. Review of Freight Forecasting Models.
• Table 10. Summary of Performance Measures, by Type.