Approaches to Forecasting the Third Performance Management Rulemaking (PM3) Measures for Target Setting

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U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590
https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/

FHWA-HOP-21-014

March 2023

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Table of Contents

[ Notice and Quality Assurance Statement ] | [ Technical Report Documentation ] | [ SI Modern Metric Conversion Factors ]| [ List of Acronyms ]

Executive Summary

Chapter 1. Introduction

Background

Introduction

Establishing Targets

Metrics and Measures

Chapter 2. Using Historical Data for the Extrapolation of Past Trends

Data Requirements

Analysis Tools

Forecasting Measures and Target Setting Process

Example

Chapter 3. Empirical Analysis: Assessing At-Risk Highway Segments

Data Requirements

Analysis Tools

Forecasting Measures and Target Setting Process

Example

Chapter 4. Model-Based Forecasts of Targets

Data Requirements

Analysis Tools

Forecasting Measures and Target Setting Process

Example

Chapter 5. Machine Learning Model-based Forecasts of Targets

Summary

List of Figures

Figure 1. Chart. Historical trends in Interstate system reliability performance.

Figure 2. Chart. Extrapolated trends for the Interstate travel time reliability measure.

Figure 3. Chart. Sensitivity analysis for Interstate and non-Interstate National Highway System reliability.

Figure 4. Chart. Empirical relationship for predicting the 80^th percentile Travel Time Index.

Figure 5. Equation. Predicted travel time on the link.

Figure 6. Chart. Example of reliability along a facility: I-66 Eastbound AM peak (6 a.m.–10 a.m.).

Figure 7. Chart. Interstate travel time reliability measure prediction—statewide.

List of Tables

Table 1. Summary of required targets under 23 Code of Federal Regulations 409.105.

Table 2. Percent of person-miles traveled on the Interstate that are reliable.

Table 3. Sensitivity analysis for Interstate and non-Interstate National Highway System reliability.

Table 4. Strategic Highway Research Program 2 reliability tools.

Table 5. Example traffic distributions.

Table 6. Link calculations.