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21st Century Operations Using 21st Century Technologies
Table of Contents

Approaches to Forecasting the Third Performance Management Rulemaking (PM3) Measures for Target Settingg

Foreword

Notice

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Technical Report Documentation Page

1. Report No.

FHWA-HOP-21-014

2. Government Accession No.

3. Recipient’s Catalog No.

4. Title and Subtitle

Approaches to Forecasting the Third Performance Management Rulemaking (PM3) Measures for Target Setting

5. Report Date

August 2023
6. Performing Organization Code

7. Author(s)

Praveen Pasumarthy and Richard Margiotta

8. Performing Organization Report No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address

Cambridge Systematics Inc.
101 Station Landing, Suite 410
Medford, MA 02155

10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)

11. Contract or Grant No.

DTFH61-16-D-00051

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address

U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590

13. Type of Report and Period Covered

Final Report, October 2018–March 2023

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

HOP

15. Supplementary Notes

Task Order Contracting Officer’s Representative (TOCOR) is Rich Taylor

16. Abstract

This document developed a step-by-step calculation guide for three forecasting methods in support of target setting for the third performance management rulemaking PM3 travel time- based performance measures. The three forecasting methods covered in this document are:

  • Extrapolation of past trends (macroscopic).
  • Highway segments “at risk” for unreliability (microscopic; based on identifying segments that close to the reliability threshold).
  • Model-based forecasting.

17. Key Words

Operations, performance measures, performance management, target setting, forecasting

18. Distribution Statement

No restrictions.

19. Security Classif. (of this report)

Unclassified

20. Security Classif. (of this page)

Unclassified

21. No of Pages

46

22. Price

N/A

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72)                                                                      Reproduction of completed pages authorized

SI (Modern Metric)

Approximate Conversions to SI Units
Symbol When You Know Multiply By To Find Symbol
Length
in inches 25.4 millimeters mm
ft feet 0.305 meters m
yd yards 0.914 meters m
mi miles 1.61 kilometers km
Area
in2 square inches 645.2 square millimeters mm2
ft2 square feet 0.093 square meters m2
yd2 square yard 0.836 square meters m2
ac acres 0.405 hectares ha
mi2 square miles 2.59 square kilometers km2
Volume
fl oz fluid ounces 29.57 milliliters mL
gal gallons 3.785 liters L
ft3 cubic feet 0.028 cubic meters m3
yd3 cubic yards 0.765 cubic meters m3
NOTE: volumes greater than 1000 L shall be shown in m3
Mass
oz ounces 28.35 grams g
lb pounds 0.454 kilograms kg
T short tons (2000 lb) 0.907 megagrams (or "metric ton") Mg (or "t")
Temperature (exact degrees)
°F Fahrenheit 5 (F-32)/9 or (F-32)/1.8 Celsius °C
Illumination
fc foot-candles 10.76 lux lx
fl foot-Lamberts 3.426 candela/m2 cd/m2
Force and Pressure or Stress
lbf poundforce 4.45 newtons N
lbf/in2 poundforce per square inch 6.89 kilopascals kPa

Conversion Factors

Approximate Conversions from SI Units
Symbol When You Know Multiply By To Find Symbol
Length
mm millimeters 0.039 inches in
m meters 3.28 feet ft
m meters 1.09 yards yd
km kilometers 0.621 miles mi
Area
mm2 square millimeters 0.0016 square inches in2
m2 square meters 10.764 square feet ft2
m2 square meters 1.195 square yards yd2
ha hectares 2.47 acres ac
km2 square kilometers 0.386 square miles mi2
Volume
mL milliliters 0.034 fluid ounces fl oz
L liters 0.264 gallons gal
m3 cubic meters 35.314 cubic feet ft3
m3 cubic meters 1.307 cubic yards yd3
Mass
g grams 0.035 ounces oz
kg kilograms 2.202 pounds lb
Mg (or "t") megagrams (or "metric ton") 1.103 short tons (2000 lb) T
Temperature (exact degrees)
°C Celsius 1.8C+32 Fahrenheit °F
Illumination
lx lux 0.0929 foot-candles fc
cd/m2 candela/m2 0.2919 foot-Lamberts fl
Force and Pressure or Stress
N newtons 02.225 poundforce lbf
kPa kilopascals 0.145 poundforce per square inch lbf/in2

Note: SI is the symbol for the International System of Units. Appropriate rounding should be made to comply with Section 4 of ASTM E380. (Revised March 2003)

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