Office of Operations
21st Century Operations Using 21st Century Technologies

Advancing Transportation Systems Management and Operations Through Scenario Planning

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United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration

U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590

FHWA-HOP-16-016

October 2015


Table of Contents

[ Notice and Quality Assurance Statement ] [ Technical Report Documentation Page ] [ Transmittal Letter ]

Section 1: Introduction
Purpose
Overview
Section 2: Understanding Scenario Planning and Its Use in Transportation
What is Scenario Planning?
The Origins of Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning in Transportation
Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework
Using Scenario Planning in Performance-Based Planning and Programming
Section 3: Applying the Scenario Planning Approach to Planning for Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Applied to Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Phase by Phase: Process, Participants, and Outputs
Analysis Tools and Data to Support Scenario Planning for Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Section 4: Opportunities for Scenario Planning to Advance Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Regional Opportunities
Statewide Opportunities
Corridor Opportunities
Opportunities to Consider Implications of Emerging Trends
Section 5: Illustrations of Scenario Planning for Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Southcom Coalition: Planning for Operational Resilience during Tropical Storms
Corridor Q: Development of a Multimodal Corridor Operations Plan
Fairview Metro Plan: Development of Regional TSMO Strategies
Section 6: Getting Started

List of Tables

Table 1. Costs and Benefits of Scenario Planning
Table 2. Transportation Systems Management and Operations Planning Contexts and Sample Scenario Planning Applications
Table 3. Scenario Planning Focal Questions and Outcomes
Table 4. Example Driving Forces to Shape Scenario Logic
Table 5. Sample Operations Objectives for Use in Scenario Planning

List of Figures

Figure 1. Illustration. The Federal Highway Administration's Six-Phase Scenario Planning Framework
Figure 2. Diagram. Transportation-Related Performance Target for Plan Bay Area
Figure 3. Diagram. Metropolitan Transportation Commission's Performance-Based Planning Framework
Figure 4. Diagram. The Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Figure 5. Diagram. Phase 1 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Figure 6. Diagram. Planning Horizons
Figure 7. Diagram. Phase 2 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Figure 8. Diagram. Phase 3 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Figure 9. Diagram. Phase 4 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Figure 10. Diagram. Phase 5 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Figure 11. Diagram. Phase 6 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations


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