Advancing Transportation Systems Management and Operations Through Scenario Planning

Printable Version [PDF, 1.2 MB]
You may need the Adobe® Reader® to view the PDFs on this page.
Contact Information: Operations Feedback at OperationsFeedback@dot.gov

U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590

FHWA-HOP-16-016

October 2015

---

Table of Contents

[ Notice and Quality Assurance Statement ] [ Technical Report Documentation Page ] [ Transmittal Letter ]

Section 1: Introduction
	Purpose
	Overview
Section 2: Understanding Scenario Planning and Its Use in Transportation
	What is Scenario Planning?
	The Origins of Scenario Planning
	Scenario Planning in Transportation
	Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework
	Using Scenario Planning in Performance-Based Planning and Programming
Section 3: Applying the Scenario Planning Approach to Planning for Transportation Systems Management and Operations
	Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Applied to Transportation Systems Management and Operations
	Phase by Phase: Process, Participants, and Outputs
	Analysis Tools and Data to Support Scenario Planning for Transportation Systems Management and Operations
Section 4: Opportunities for Scenario Planning to Advance Transportation Systems Management and Operations
	Regional Opportunities
	Statewide Opportunities
	Corridor Opportunities
	Opportunities to Consider Implications of Emerging Trends
Section 5: Illustrations of Scenario Planning for Transportation Systems Management and Operations
	Southcom Coalition: Planning for Operational Resilience during Tropical Storms
	Corridor Q: Development of a Multimodal Corridor Operations Plan
	Fairview Metro Plan: Development of Regional TSMO Strategies
Section 6: Getting Started

List of Tables

Table 1. Costs and Benefits of Scenario Planning

Table 2. Transportation Systems Management and Operations Planning Contexts and Sample Scenario Planning Applications

Table 3. Scenario Planning Focal Questions and Outcomes

Table 4. Example Driving Forces to Shape Scenario Logic

Table 5. Sample Operations Objectives for Use in Scenario Planning

List of Figures

Figure 1. Illustration. The Federal Highway Administration's Six-Phase Scenario Planning Framework

Figure 2. Diagram. Transportation-Related Performance Target for Plan Bay Area

Figure 3. Diagram. Metropolitan Transportation Commission's Performance-Based Planning Framework

Figure 4. Diagram. The Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations

Figure 5. Diagram. Phase 1 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations

Figure 6. Diagram. Planning Horizons

Figure 7. Diagram. Phase 2 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations

Figure 8. Diagram. Phase 3 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations

Figure 9. Diagram. Phase 4 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations

Figure 10. Diagram. Phase 5 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations

Figure 11. Diagram. Phase 6 of the Federal Highway Administration Scenario Planning Framework Adapted to Transportation Systems Management and Operations