Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction — Phase 3 Evaluation Report

Long Description: Figure 37. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road historical speeds, February 12, 2020.

This plot contains four graphs, visibility, speed, pavement temperature, and precipitation categories, for historical data at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road on February 12, 2020. The x axis on all graphs is labeled time of day ranges from midnight February 12 to midnight, February 13, covering a 24 hour period. The x grid is divided on one hour intervals, and axis tic marks appear at midnight February 12, 6 AM, 12 PM, 6 PM, and midnight February 13.

The y axis for the visibility graph plots visibility in miles from zero to 17.5 miles. Two curves are plotted for visibility with sources of rapid refresh and real-time mesoscale analysis. The rapid refresh curve starts at 17.5 miles at midnight and slowly decreases to 1 mile at 9 AM. This curve remains at 1 mile up to 2 PM, then increases to 2.5 miles at 3 PM, returns to 1 mile at 5 PM, and then slowly increases to 7.5 miles at 7 PM and then slowly decreases to 2.5 miles at 11 PM. The real-time mesoscale analysis curve is at 10 miles from midnight to 9 AM. It then drops to around 2 miles from 10 AM to 6 PM, increases to 7.5 miles from 8 to 9 PM, and then decreases to 2.5 miles at 11 PM.

The y axis for the speed graph plots average speed of vehicles on each link from 0 to 80 miles per hour with tic marks at 0, 20, 40, 60, and 80 miles per hour. Three curves are plotted for speed with sources of Kansas City Scout, Traffic Estimation and Prediction System, and machine learning-based prediction model A. The scout curve is at 70 miles per hour from midnight to 8 AM. Then it drops to 30 miles per hour at 9 AM and then climbs to 60 miles per hour at 11 AM and remains at this level until 11 PM. A couple minor dips to 50 miles per hour happen at 5 and 6 PM. The machine learning-based prediction model A curve is coincident with the scout curve over the extent of the graph. The Traffic Estimation and Prediction System curve is coincident with the scout curve from midnight to 6 AM, and then shows a number of steep valleys down to 10 miles per hour over the rest of the graph to 11 PM.

The y axis for the pavement temperature graph plots temperature of pavement in degrees Fahrenheit from 32 to 37 degrees. One curve is plotted with a source of Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads. This curve starts at 31 degrees at midnight and slowly increases to 33 degrees at 11 AM. A sharp peak occurs at 11:30 AM up to 37 degrees, and then the curve returns to about 32 degrees from 12 PM to 5 PM, with a number of peaks up to 33 degrees. At 6 PM a peak at 35 degrees is present, and then the curve returns to 32 degrees until 11 PM.

The y axis for the precipitation categories graph plots precipitation category from 0 to 12 with tic marks at 0, 4, 8, and 12. One curve is plotted with a source of Rapid Refresh. The curve is at 0 from midnight to 11 AM, increases to 1 at 12 to 3 PM. Then the curve increases to 8 at 4 PM and returns to 0 at 6 PM to 11 PM.

[ Return to Figure 37. ]