Freight and Land Use Travel Demand Evaluation: Final Report

Appendix C: Freight/Land Use Travel Demand Evaluation Literature Review
Section 1: Overview

Project Purpose

The overall purpose of the Freight and Land Use Travel Demand Evaluation study was to define the need for improved information, identify types of new technical content that are of the greatest value, and consider the most effective format for new freight and land use data products. The study involved conducting a literature review (summarized in this report) and peer exchanges.

The purpose of the literature review was to determine how land use, local economic development, and demographic factors drive freight movement, trip generation, and freight demand analysis. This information is expected to provide freight and transportation practitioners with improved processes and tools that better reflect the relationship between freight movement and land use.

Based on the information collected via literature review, interviews, and the peer exchanges, key insights were summarized and developed into a technical report, which describes opportunities for improving the estimation of freight trip generation (FTG) rates that recognize a multimodal perspective and variability in FTG due to differences in land use. The technical report also explores how business and demographic changes, real and expected, may trigger changes in freight and logistical movements. Further, the technical report shows how these changes are captured in freight demand modeling and recommends enhancement to resources needed for a full update to the Quick Response Freight Manual (QRFM).

Structure

This document contains the following information:

• Section 2 describes the project approach, including integrating the literature review and peer exchange.
• Section 3 presents key findings of the literature scan.
• Section 4 summarizes key gaps and opportunities as identified from the literature scan.
• Appendix C-1 contains an annotated bibliography of sources reviewed in the scan.

State of the Practice and Trends

The second iteration of QRFM was published in September 2007. Like its 1996 predecessor, the QRFM provided background information on the freight transportation system and factors affecting freight demand. The QRFM provides information that helps planners:

• Understand key issues;
• Locate available data and freight-related forecasts; and
• Apply this information in developing forecasts for freight vehicle trip tables.

In the last decade, significant strides have been made in tracking freight movement, advancing a behavior-based supply chain modeling state of the practice, and incorporating land use and demographic considerations into travel demand analysis.

Information Explosion

The transportation planning profession is experiencing a paradigm shift in the way programs and projects are developed, evaluated, implemented, and maintained for all travel modes. Rapid advances in communication technology have ushered in an era characterized by big data. This has resulted in an explosion of information, given a greater array of robust, data-driven, analytic tools; a wider distribution of such tools, and increased communication of analytic results to broader audiences.

The transportation industry will benefit from these technology advances. There will be increased opportunities for improved knowledge within the traditional transportation industry and emerging cross-disciplinary partnerships, including with professionals in non-transportation fields such as economic development and public health.

At the same time, the transportation planning professional risks being inundated with information from peers and other stakeholders. It becomes more challenging, but even more important to be able to distinguish among the myriad of data sources to focus on information that will inform sound decision-making.

Goods Movement State of the Practice

The two most recent pieces of Federal transportation authorizing legislation, the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21^st Century (MAP 21) and the Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act, placed greater emphasis on freight and goods movement. Freight transportation is a principal driver of economic prosperity. Yet, analytical tools for evaluating and forecasting freight movement are lagging as compared to those used to assess passenger movement. The need for improved FTG tools is compounded by recent and emerging goods movement trends that significantly affect how the private sector does business. In particular, these trends include:

• Cargo telematics approaches employed by firms such as Transfix and INRIX.
• Technological trends, which include automated vehicles and emerging delivery services such as drones.
• Societal trends such as e-retailing and the needs of aging baby boomers and millennials.
• Economic/freight trends such as intermodal logistics centers and the post-Panamax economy (post-Panamax refers to container vessels that are too large to navigate through the original dimensions of the Panama Canal locks).
• Improved freight data, including the effects of multimodal shares and intermodal transfers between sea, air, rail, as well long-haul, last-mile, distribution, and service vehicle trips.

It is important for land use and transportation planners to understand these macro and micro economic trends to help improve, develop, and implement effective multimodal transportation system policies, programs, and projects.

Land Use and Demographic Considerations

The same economic and societal trends driving the information explosion and the evolution of goods movement also influence how local and regional governments engage in land use planning and development. Planning and design of the built environment are increasingly viewed as ways to increase transportation system efficiency through a more effective multimodal approach. In addition, just-in-time deliveries and increased deliveries from e-commerce have led to more frequent shipment of goods, increasing truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and urban congestion. The importance of a context-sensitive approach to integrating land use and transportation applies to the assessment of freight travel demand and the provision of transportation supply. Many studies have addressed how the "Ds" of land use (density, diversity, design), affect auto trips and VMT. Far less information exists regarding truck trip generation.

Current industry trends for moving freight have created land use changes with increased development of intermodal logistics hubs, larger regional distribution centers, and freight-oriented development around gateways such as airports and ports. Some communities are promoting economic development centers that cluster freight and logistics with other related industries and supportive businesses.

Next Steps for Consideration

Additional user feedback will help define the final product for a potential update of QRFM. Initial scoping for the project began with a hypothesis that the updated QRFM would be a stand-alone technical report to update the previous QRFM. However, project team review led to a conclusion that the updated QRFM would most effectively serve the freight demand community if it were developed as a living web document. The web version of the QRFM will be updated periodically as land use and travel demand conditions evolve and new freight mobility and accessibility challenges arise. This will allow the document to be adapted by future generations and remain relevant in the ever-changing transportation and freight industries.

There may also be opportunities to link QRFM resources with continued cross-training through online libraries, webinars, or podcasts sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) through mechanisms such as the Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP)/Freight Model Improvement Program (FMIP) and Talking Freight initiatives, or via cross-training alliances with groups like the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), Transportation Research Board (TRB), Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE), or American Planning Association (APA). The beta tool from National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) Project 48 is a useful resource in the development of this project, and also as part of the package of resources incorporated in the final report: https://ncfrp48-stage.icfwebservices.com/NCFRP48/reports/#/route2 (note that credentials are required to access website).

The updated QRFM could also be branded with key infographics or flow diagrams. The "production-consumption (PC)" link graphic shown in Figure 1 is an iconic tool for helping define the evolving reflection of supply-chain relationships in the development of freight generation (FG), FTG, and service trip generation (STG) concepts described in National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 739 and the pre-publication edition of NCFRP Report 37 (additional details are described in Section 3 and the Annotated Bibliography within this document).