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21st Century Operations Using 21st Century Technologies
Table of Contents

Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction — Phase 3 Evaluation Report

Appendix A. Speed Forecast Error Data

Table 4. Absolute error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.
Source Forecast Lead Time 11/11/2019 11/29/2019 12/15/2019 12/16/2019 12/17/2019
MLP 15 min 7.84 3.02 11.67 5.82 2.743
MLP 30 min 10.37 4.52 14.27 7.33 3.43
MLP 45 min 11.65 4.48 14.67 8.1 4.65
MLP 60 min 15.07 5.37 15.3 9.36 5.47
MLP 75 min 16.73 5.48 14.22 10.24 8.67
MLP 90 min 17.91 7.29 16.7 10.32 10.78
MLP 105 min 18.83 9.34 16.65 10.71 11.55
MLP 115 min 18.53 10.53 17.85 11.82 15.37
MLP All 15.84 5.89 15.15 9.25 6.04
TrEPS 15 min 28.67 N/A 30.35 27.93 19.41
TrEPS 30 min 29.73 N/A 30.36 27.93 19.41
TrEPS 45 min 27.12 N/A 30.9 27.94 19.41
TrEPS 60 min 28.44 N/A 31 28.1 19.41
TrEPS 75 min 28.85 N/A 31.13 28.18 19.41
TrEPS 90 min 25.98 N/A 30.73 28.42 19.41
TrEPS 105 min 26.11 N/A 30.12 28.17 19.49
TrEPS 115 min 23.22 N/A 30.4 27.8 19.23
TrEPS All 27.74 N/A 30.64 28.1 19.49

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction. TrEPS = Traffic Estimation and Prediction System. N/A = not applicable.


Table 5. Relative absolute error 80 percent quantiles (percent) at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.
Source Forecast Lead Time 11/11/2019 11/29/2019 12/15/2019 12/16/2019 12/17/2019
MLP 15 min 21.68 6.19 40.21 15.99 6.14
MLP 30 min 24.42 9.85 51.99 20.13 7.56
MLP 45 min 28.62 9.88 60.21 20.96 10.34
MLP 60 min 33.6 12.31 52.2 23.67 11.77
MLP 75 min 40.75 12.8 50.55 26.56 18.32
MLP 90 min 44.23 17.47 57.51 25.82 26.22
MLP 105 min 50.82 20.82 64.8 28.27 32
MLP 115 min 51.28 22.82 61.55 30.03 39.16
MLP All 41.11 13.21 53.72 23.92 13.85
TrEPS 15 min 75.75 N/A 100.77 79.75 41.81
TrEPS 30 min 77.99 N/A 102.18 79.75 41.81
TrEPS 45 min 70.45 N/A 103.28 79.04 41.81
TrEPS 60 min 73.24 N/A 105.83 79.22 41.81
TrEPS 75 min 73.69 N/A 106.44 78.76 41.81
TrEPS 90 min 60.72 N/A 104.02 78.52 41.81
TrEPS 105 min 63.65 N/A 101.16 78.19 41.83
TrEPS 115 min 57.02 N/A 106.36 73.3 40.97
TrEPS All 71.48 N/A 104.32 78.58 41.83

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction. N/A = not applicable. TrEPS = Traffic Estimation and Prediction System.


Table 6. Root mean square error (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.
Source Forecast Lead Time 11/11/2019 11/29/2019 12/15/2019 12/16/2019 12/17/2019
MLP 15 min 7.19 5.69 7.83 5.05 4
MLP 30 min 8.85 9.14 9.68 6.14 5.47
MLP 45 min 9.67 9.47 10.73 6.8 7.07
MLP 60 min 10.42 10.67 11.01 7.3 8.86
MLP 75 min 11.75 11.64 11.24 7.48 10.24
MLP 90 min 12.47 12.48 12.02 8.1 11.47
MLP 105 min 12.82 13.09 12.11 8.32 12.2
MLP 115 min 12.61 13.26 12.45 8.95 12.57
MLP All 10.85 10.85 10.92 7.31 9.44
TrEPS 15 min 25 N/A 23.67 25.02 20.37
TrEPS 30 min 25.42 N/A 23.68 25.34 20.38
TrEPS 45 min 24.54 N/A 23.82 25.43 20.4
TrEPS 60 min 24.21 N/A 24.33 25.54 20.25
TrEPS 75 min 24.16 N/A 24.29 25.49 20.43
TrEPS 90 min 23.25 N/A 23.95 25.42 20.44
TrEPS 105 min 23.19 N/A 23.95 25.13 20.51
TrEPS 115 min 22.36 N/A 23.57 24.92 20.29
TrEPS All 24.08 N/A 23.91 25.32 20.38

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction. N/A = not applicable. TrEPS = Traffic Estimation and Prediction System.


Table 7. Absolute error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.
Source Forecast Lead Time 11/11/2019 11/29/2019 12/15/2019 12/16/2019 12/17/2019
MLP 15 min 3.02 2.58 5.36 3.82 2.57
MLP 30 min 3.62 2.96 5.8 4.88 3
MLP 45 min 4.35 3.34 7.06 5.18 3.58
MLP 60 min 4.66 3.41 6.52 6.08 4.94
MLP 75 min 5.32 3.35 6.13 6.84 5.03
MLP 90 min 5.66 3.43 8.24 7.37 5.36
MLP 105 min 5.86 3.68 10.25 7.9 5.77
MLP 115 min 6.03 3.97 10.15 7.3 5.41
MLP All 6.04 7.21 7.21 6.04 4.62

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction.


Table 8. Relative absolute error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.
Source Forecast Lead Time 11/11/2019 11/29/2019 12/15/2019 12/16/2019 12/17/2019
MLP 15 min 5.26 5.25 13.88 7.78 4.45
MLP 30 min 6.64 5.34 15.79 9.66 5.24
MLP 45 min 8.27 5.8 16.66 11.33 6.26
MLP 60 min 8.46 6.07 16.35 12.38 8.46
MLP 75 min 9.56 5.75 16.58 13.05 9.2
MLP 90 min 10.08 6.11 19.39 14 9.96
MLP 105 min 10.61 7.02 22.45 15.2 10.2
MLP 115 min 10.94 7.23 21.64 15.37 9.62
MLP All 9.31 6.13 18.61 12.59 7.96

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction.


Table 9. RMS error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.
Source Forecast Lead Time 11/11/2019 11/29/2019 12/15/2019 12/16/2019 12/17/2019
MLP 15 min 2.89 2.67 4.32 3.39 2.89
MLP 30 min 3.29 3.67 5.39 3.78 3.47
MLP 45 min 3.8 2.74 6.01 4.48 3.92
MLP 60 min 4.14 2.6 6.13 4.69 4.28
MLP 75 min 4.54 2.85 6.32 5.01 4.6
MLP 90 min 4.5 2.94 6.65 5.28 5.1
MLP 105 min 4.53 3.17 7.49 5.57 5.46
MLP 115 min 4.75 3.25 8.19 5.83 6.05
MLP All 4.09 3 6.36 4.78 4.57

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction.


Table 10. Absolute error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.
Source Forecast Lead Time 1/29/2020 2/12/2020
MLP 15 min 5.31 3.16
MLP 30 min 5.22 4.2
MLP 45 min 5.27 4.86
MLP 60 min 5.45 5.44
MLP 75 min 7.85 6.35
MLP 90 min 11.26 6.95
MLP 105 min 11.92 6.37
MLP 115 min 13.54 6.51
MLP All 7.09 5.6

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction.


Table 11. Relative absolute error 80 percent quantiles (percent) at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.
Source Forecast Lead Time 1/29/2020 2/12/2020
MLP 15 min 8.42 4.86
MLP 30 min 7.98 6.86
MLP 45 min 8.6 7.82
MLP 60 min 8.93 8.26
MLP 75 min 12.99 9.32
MLP 90 min 21.43 10.38
MLP 105 min 20.62 10.37
MLP 115 min 25.87 10.65
MLP All 12.71 8.5
TrEPS 15 min 62.9 66.32
TrEPS 30 min 54.3 67.48
TrEPS 45 min 58.9 51.12
TrEPS 60 min 64 51.8
TrEPS 75 min 70.8 17.92
TrEPS 90 min 67 38.01
TrEPS 105 min 57 47.72
TrEPS 115 min 57.1 N/A
TrEPS All 61.5 51.75

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction. N/A = not applicable. TrEPS = Traffic Estimation and Prediction System.


Table 12. Root mean square error (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.
Source Forecast Lead Time 1/29/2020 2/12/2020
MLP 15 min 8.58 4.33
MLP 30 min 7.8 5.98
MLP 45 min 9.38 7.51
MLP 60 min 10.18 8.22
MLP 75 min 10.52 8.85
MLP 90 min 11.86 9.21
MLP 105 min 11.96 9.51
MLP 115 min 12.91 9.67
MLP All 10.49 8.07
TrEPS 15 min 29.69 24.16
TrEPS 30 min 28.21 23.89
TrEPS 45 min 30.58 23.36
TrEPS 60 min 31.64 22.91
TrEPS 75 min 32.14 19.85
TrEPS 90 min 32.37 22.66
TrEPS 105 min 29.86 22.09
TrEPS 115 min 29.53 N/A
TrEPS All 30.52 22.68

min = minute. MLP = machine learning-based prediction. N/A = not applicable. TrEPS = Traffic Estimation and Prediction System.