Approaches to Target Setting for PM3 Measures
Executive Summary
Targets and measures are key components of performance management and are critical to communicating information about the transportation system to decision-makers, stakeholders, and the traveling public. In transitioning to a performance management-based approach for making transportation investment and policy decisions, as mandated by Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) (Pub. L. 112-141) and Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act (Pub. L. 114-94), target setting for travel time-based measures has emerged as a key challenge. This report provides potential approaches and resources to State Departments of Transportation (DOT) and local agencies to help overcome those challenges. Approaches include technical options for developing the information to support target setting, as well as two examples of target setting by agencies.
The technical resources and case studies presented in the report suggest key findings, including:
- Targets are Critical for Performance Management—Targets are a critical component of performance management as they make an observable and quantifiable link between investment decisions and performance expectations. Furthermore, targets help bring transparency to the transportation decision-making process and are useful to State DOTs and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO) beyond the need to meet Federal requirements. For example, as discussed in the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) case study, Washington State linked its design standards to performance targets via its Practical Design initiative. While the transportation planning process includes performance measurements and target setting, project-level decisions made during the design phase impact an agency’s ability to achieve target levels.
- Data Resources for Agencies—The provision of the National Performance Management Research Data Set (NPMRDS) data by Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) for development of the Third Performance Measure Rule (PM3) (83 FR 24920) measures has greatly aided target-setting efforts as well.1 However, beyond the PM3 measures, for States that are unable to purchase additional travel time data, the lack of coverage of the NPMRDS data on non-National Highway System (NHS) roadways presents a challenge.
- Forecasting Performance for Travel Time Measures—Forecasting reliability performance and predicting targets is an emerging practice and represents a challenge that State DOTs and local agencies face in order to transition from a performance measurement to a performance management approach. To date, extrapolation of past trends has been the most common method to provide the technical basis for setting PM3 targets. While most travel demand models have been developed to forecast performance measures, such as volume-to-capacity and vehicle-hours traveled, no State DOT or local agency appears to have developed a model to forecast any of the PM3 reliability or delay measures. Thus, the development of models and tools to aid in forecasting reliability is an important research area going forward. Application of several of the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP 2) reliability tools offer promise in this area.
- Resources Available to Agencies—Resources available to agencies to aid in target setting include data sources that supplement publicly available travel time data; models and analytical tools that aid in forecasting demand and performance; and the experience of peer agencies. Effectively leveraging these resources helps agencies to set realistic targets and avoid pitfalls that may result from external factors beyond their control.
