Large and Growing Demand for Freight Transportation

According to the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF), the U.S. transportation system moved an average of 53 million tons of freight worth $36 billion per day in 2002 to serve 109 million households, 24.8 million business establishments, and almost 88,000 units of government (USDOC Census Bureau 2006). More than one-half of the tonnage moved within local areas, and less than 10 percent was an import from or export to another country. Trucks hauled close to 60 percent of the weight and two-thirds of the value of shipments (Figure 1). Goods transported by more than one mode accounted for only 1 percent of domestic tons, but represented 60 percent of the weight of exports and almost 70 percent of imports.

FAF provisional estimates¹ for 2007 show an increase in tons moved by truck, rail, pipeline, intermodal, and air modes, with a slight decrease in tonnage moved by water. While the volume of freight moved by air and intermodal modes grew at faster rates between 2002 and 2007, the truck mode experienced an increase of more than ten percent in the same five years and carried more total tonnage than all other modes combined. These provisional estimates are consistent with annual growth rates in the FAF forecast for 2035.

Figure 1. Goods Movement by Mode: 2002 - Goods movement by mode shown in two pie charts. First chart shows breakdown in tons. Truck is 59.7% of the total number of tons, pipeline and unknown is 20.2%, rail is 9.7%, intermodal is 6.7%, water is 3.6%, and air/air and truck is 0.1%. Second chart shows breakdown in value. Truck is 66.9% of the total value, pipeline and unknown is 8.7%, intermodal is 14.9%, air/air and truck is 5.8%, rail is 2.9%, and water is 0.8%.

Notes: Intermodal includes U.S. Post Service and courier shipments and all intermodal combinations, except air and truck. Intermodal also includes oceangoing exports and imports that move between ports and interior domestic locations by modes other than water. Pipeline and unknown shipments are combined because data on region-to-region flows by pipeline are statistically uncertain. Data do not include imports and exports that pass through the United States from a foreign origin to a foreign destination by any mode. Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Freight Management and Operations, Freight Analysis Framework, version 2.2, 2007.

Figure 1 data in Excel format | Figure 1 data in html format

Table 1. Goods Movement: 2002 and 2035
Mode	2002 (million tons)	Percent	2035 (million tons)	Percent	Percent Change 2002-2035
Total	19,328	100.0	37,211	100.0	92.5
Domestic	17,670	91.4	33,667	90.5	90.5
Imports plus exports	1,658	8.6	3,544	9.5	113.7

Note: Data do not include imports and exports that pass through the Untied States from a foreign origin to a foreign destination by any mode.
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Freight Management and Operations, Freight Analysis Framework, version 2.2, 2007.

Table 1 data in Excel format

The volume of freight increases as the economy expands and, in some cases, at a much greater rate. Between 1999 and 2004, container traffic increased 44 percent while U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in constant dollars increased 13 percent (USDOT MARAD 2004 and EOP 2008). Over the next three decades, U.S. GDP is expected to grow by almost 3 percent annually, driven in part by a population increase from 300 million people in 2008 to almost 380 million in 2035 (NSTP-RSC 2007 and USDOC Census Bureau 2004a). As a result, domestic tons are forecast to increase 2 percent each year, almost doubling between now and 2035 (Table 1). International trade is expected to increase even faster, which is consistent with its substantial growth rate over the last four decades (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Value of Merchandise Trade by Coasts and Borders: 1951 to 2007 - Figure 2. Line chart showing value of trade by coasts and borders from 1951 to 2007 for 5 categories. In descending order of trend value, these categories are: Atlantic coast, Pacific Coast, Canadian border, Gulf Coast, and Mexican border. Between 1951 and 2007, the Atlantic coast value increased eightfold, and the Mexican border value increased more than twentyfold.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Freight Facts and Figures 2008 (Washington, DC: Forthcoming), figure 2-1.

Figure 2 data in Excel format | Figure 2 data in html format

In addition to moving larger volumes of freight, the transportation system is moving goods over greater distances. During the past decade, domestic tons transported increased by slightly more than 20 percent while ton miles rose by almost 30 percent (USDOT BTS 2006). This increase in the weighted average distance of shipments may be caused by the growth in East Coast demand for Asian products that are reshipped through the West Coast, the increase in agricultural exports, and the shift by Midwestern power plants from local sources to Powder River Basin coal.

¹ Provisional estimates are less detailed and based on less complete observations than the FAF base year estimate for 2002.

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