The picture of different freight transportation mode: air, water, truck and rail.

Slide 1:

National Multimodal Freight

Trends/Issues/Forecasts/
Policy Implications

Objectives…

Slide 2:

Objectives…

Discuss emerging trends
Present national freight analysis efforts including forecasts
Identify some of the emerging policy issues toward transportation reauthorization in 2002-2003

Emerging Freight Trends and Issues

Slide 3:

Emerging Freight Trends and Issues
Markets/Logistics (demand)
From national markets to global markets
From a manufacturing to a service economy
Increased DOD reliance on commercial freight system
Moving to customer dictated just-in-time delivery system
Carriers/Transportation Systems (supply)
From modal fragmentation to cross-modal coordination
From system construction to system optimization
Public Policy
From economic deregulation to safety regulation
From modal to multi-modal surface transportation policy
Increased environmental accountability

National Highway System Intermodal Connectors - Infrastructure Constraints is in bad shape.

Slide 4:

National Highway System Intermodal Connectors - Infrastructure Constraints
NHS Connectors
Poor physical condition
Poor geometrics
“orphan status”
inadequate coordination of investment strategies

Congestion is becoming an area of national concern, as both passengers and freight compete to improve mobility and productivity.

Slide 5:

Travel Rate Congestion Index Peak-Period Travel Times Have Increased Significantly Compared to Off-Peak Travel Times in Across the Nation

The connectors report highlights the disconnect between the local public sector officials and global private sector entities. This slide highlights the disconnect between the public and private sectors on freight issues. ISTEA and TEA-21 devolved much of the transportation decision making to State and local governments as shown on left while private industry is increasingly thinking and acting nationally and globally. Many States and MPOs don’t understand the nature of the freight moving through their areas and have made only limited attempts to engage the private sector in the planning process. The private sector has neither the staff, time, or resources to deal with each and every State local government plan, project, and policy affecting their far-flung transportation operations. In reality, I (the local entity) get the costs, but the overall system gets the benefits. The costs and benefits are not shared equally.

Slide 6:

Freight Transportation Perspectives State and MPO focus is regional and local; private sector focus is increasingly national and global

National Multimodal Freight Data and Policy Analysis Framework

Slide 7:

National Multimodal Freight Data and Policy Analysis Framework
Approximation of current national flows
Economic trade forecasts to 2020 (domestic and international) and estimated modal components
Assessment of capacity and investment implications
Policy development tool for future legislation

National summary of freight by tons and value moved by each of the modes for 1998;

Slide 8:

Total Domestic Freight Tons and Value Freight traffic moving into, out of, and within the U.S. totaled 9.8 billion tons and $9.1 trillion in 1998- 1st approximation.

A picture is worth a thousand words. Truck travel pretty ubiquitous on network; with obviously heavier densities in eastern seaboard and into the Midwest and Southeast corridors, large consuming regions. Notice, that every section of the country depends upon truck activities.

Slide 9:

Truck Freight Flows, All Commodities All truck types; highway freight density in tons

Coal and grain movement dominant for rail, moving from the coal and grain producing areas to the consuming regions in the East Coast and\or to the export facilities. In addition, rail carries intermodal, generally from the West Coast, and automotive shipments from\to the Midwest and between our NAFTA partners.

Slide 10:

Rail Freight Flows, All Commodities Rail freight density in tons.

Heavy Missippi River focus for inland waterway system. Shipments also occur along the Great Lakes, and there exists a sizable movement of materials along the U.S. costs. The apparent flow to Latin America is actually Panama Canal traffic moving between the U.S. East and West Coasts.

Slide 11:

Inland Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities Waterway freight density in tons.

Air Cargo--For the most part, air freight carried in bellies of passenger aircraft and therefore large freight flows in same airports that have large passenger volumes like JFK and LAX; except for freight oriented airports like Memphis. Fastest growing segment of freight travel. LAX forecasting nearly a four fold increase in air cargo volumes in next 20 years. The circles represent ranges of freight activity, so be careful regarding picking winners and losers. The blue represents cargo that originates, or begins its domestic air movement. The red area represents where the shipment ended its domestic movement. There is no link between domestic or international hub activities in this map, which only shows domestic air volumes

Slide 12:

Air-Freight Origins and Destinations All commodities, domestic airport-to-airport traffic, in tons.

Highlights our top gateways, land and water ports of entry; this highlights facilities of national significance for trade. The FAF seeks to provide information on both rail and truck crossings, but also the port landside access. The bottlenecks that exist at ports or border crossings need to be addressed to improve economic competitiveness and offset local congestion problems. For example, the Alemeda Corridor in Southern California, or the FAST program in Washington State are seeking to improve both freight mobility and urban traffic flows.

Slide 13:

Top Gateways for International Freight Exports and imports in tons

If we take the slides to a local level, the distinct relationship between markets can be seen. For Chicago, its largest flows are to its neighbors, but the region also involves traffic moving to\from California, Texas, etc. The map also includes both domestic and international freight. We hope to encourage each area to understand its relationship to national freight productivity. The density map shows the segments which have a minimum flow of 500,000 tons.

Slide 14:

Total combined trcuk flows at Chicago in 1998.

Here is the map of rail flow moving to and from Chicago. This map shows the combined movements into and out of the Chicago area. The map also includes both domestic and international freight. The minimum density in this map is much different, showing shipments that have a minimum flow of 1 million tons. The convergence of the nation’s rail activity in the Chicago area is readily apparent.

Slide 15:

Total combined rail flows at Chicago in 1998.

Freight Forecast Growth Rates-Trend

Slide 16:

Freight Forecast Growth Rates-Trend
US Domestic:
1998-2020: 2.9% (Cumulative: 87%)
1998-2010: 3.4%
2010-2020: 2.4%
US International:
1998-2020: 3.4% (Cumulative: 107%)
1998-2010: 4.0%
2010-2020: 2.9%
International Sectors:
US/Canada 1998-2020: 3.1%
US/Mexico 1998-2020: 3.5%
US/ROW 1998-2020: 3.4%

Earlier, the total U.S. truck flows were shown. Here is a view of U.S.-Canadian activity in the year 2020. Canada is our largest trading partner; this slide shows the domestic legs of Canadian/US trade on the highway system in the year 2020. The key corridors remain important to the movement of U.S.-Canadian trade. In previous slide, average annual compound growth for Canada was 3.1% a year.

Slide 17:

NAFTA--US/Canada Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)

Here is the subset of the traffic as it relates to U.S.-Mexican traffic in the year 2020. Mexico is our number two trading partner. Free trade in the Americas will further spur Latin American trade and growth in traffic particularly through our southern gateways. In previous slide, average annual compound growth for Mexico was 3.4% a year. This figure does not assume the movement of Mexican trucks on the U.S. system, but reflects the future activity of U.S.-Mexican freight on the nation’s system.

Slide 18:

NAFTA--US/Mexico Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)

Here is the subset of 2020 volumes moving to and from the nation’s water ports (other than NAFTA) trade coming through our seaports. Preliminary forecasts suggest that total U.S. trade with the rest of the world will increase by 3.4% on an annual basis by 2020.

Slide 19:

Overseas Inland Trade: Truck Traffic on U.S. Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)

Next Steps: Capacity and Investment Analysis

Slide 20:

Next Steps
Capacity and Investment Analysis
Assign future freight flows to modal networks
Conduct highway system capacity analysis to understand the nature of emerging constraints, e.g. nodes, corridors, gateways, connectors, metropolitan congestion
Develop illustrative multimodal case studies in selected regions of the country; e.g. Southern Calif., Chicago rail and intermodal access, Mid Atlantic rail, Pacific NW
Assess future investment requirements for Biennial
Surface Transportation Condition and Performance Report to Congress in 2002.

The Policy Challenge

Slide 21:

The Policy Challenge
Both passenger and freight demand upon the nation’s infrastructure will increase significantly
Freight volumes will nearly double to 2020; with higher growth in some corridors and nodes
Current planning and financing methods do not adequately address freight’s unique concerns
Intermodal linkages not seamless
Increased focus on safety and environmental issues
Economic competitiveness at stake

This is the freight policy outreach workshop schedule for FHWA in cooperation with the other modes for 2001. Each of these is a developmental workshop to review state of the practice and identify policy options for the future. The first of these was the Freight Finance conference in St. Louis Apr. 29-May 1. The culminating event will be a Freight Forum at the National Academy of Sciences on Dec. 13 where we will review the policy findings of all the proceeding workshops and distill national findings and recommendations.

Slide 22:

Freight Outreach Events

Freight Funding Options from Freight Finance Conference

Slide 23:

Freight Funding Options from Freight Finance Conference
Expanded eligibility or new programs
Enhance the ability to co-mingle private and public monies
Expanded innovative financing programs
Expanded intermodal project funding
Separate programs or set asides for freight improvements
“Last Mile” program that includes all modes
New sources of revenue for freight projects

Surface transportation reauthorization development will occur in the 2002-2003 timeframe with new authorization required by Oct. 1, 2003 for FY 2004 apportionments to the States. One of the themes suggested for reauthorization is ‘Effectiveness’. An Effective system is one that meets the challenges of freight movement associated with an integrated system that supports all U. S. and North American Trade/Transportation activities

Slide 24:

Toward Surface Transportation Reauthorization- Freight elements?

Toward Surface Transportation Reauthorization- Freight elements?

Slide 25:

Toward Surface Transportation Reauthorization- Freight elements?
FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations, USDOT
http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight


Gary Maring
Director
gary.maring@fhwa.dot.gov