Freight Analysis Framework: North American Interchange on Transportation Statistics

Slide 1: Freight Analysis Framework

North American Interchange on Transportation Statistics

April 2002

Rolf R. Schmitt
U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration

Logo of U.S. Department of Transportation

Images of a truck, a row of freight containers, a ship, and an airplane

Slide 2: Freight Analysis Framework

Developed by Federal Highway Administration to understand and forecast commodity movements in the U.S.
Integrates place-to-place commodity flow data, and assigns flow to the modal networks.
Ability to analyze changes in flows or networks.
Modes included: Trucks, Railroads, Water and Air.
Commodity Detail: 2 and 4 Digit STCC.
Base Year-1998, Forecasts-2010, 2020.

Slide 3: Data Sources

BTS/Census Bureau Commodity Flow Survey (All Modes)
BTS Transborder Freight Statistics (Truck, Rail, Pipeline)
STB/FRA Rail Waybill Sample (Rail)
MarAd and US Army Corps data (Water)
BTS/FAA (Airport)
Reebie (Truck)
Census Bureau 5-year Census and Annual Survey of Manufacturers (Truck, Water, Air)
Private Port Directories (Water)
DRI Industrial Production Indices (Truck, water, air)
Trade Association Production & Shipment Reports (Truck, water, air)
US Geological Survey Mineral Industry Reports (Truck, water)
Reebie Associates Freight Locater/InfoUSA Street-Address Industrial Employment & Activity (Truck)
County Population Data (Truck)
Inter-Industry Trade Patterns (Input/Output Table) (Truck, Air)
Motor Carrier Industry Financial & Operating Statistics (Truck)
Railroad Industry Proprietary Rebill Factors (Truck)

Slide 4: Methods

Flows are estimated at the county-to-county level by mode and commodity
Flows are assigned to highway, railroad, waterway, and air networks
National and regional forecasts applied to flows
Mode shares change only if commodity mix changes
Volume, mode shares, and networks, can be changed for policy scenarios.

Slide 5: Truck Freight Flows, All Commodities (All truck types; highway freight density in tons)

U.S. map showing truck freight flows for all commodities in tons. The heaviest density is shown east of the Rocky Mountains, with heavy flow on numerous main networks as well as smaller networks. Heavy flow is also shown on networks along the West Coast and from Chicago to Salt Lake City and to the West Coast.

Slide 6: Truck Freight Flows, High-Service Commodities (High-value and time-sensitive products, highway freight density in tons)

U.S. map showing truck freight flows for high-service commodities in tons. The heaviest density is shown east of the Rocky Mountains, with heavy flow on numerous main networks. Heavy flow is also shown on networks in California and from Chicago to Salt Lake City and to the West Coast.

Slide 7: Rail Freight Flows, All Commodities (Rail freight density in tons)

U.S. map showing rail freight flows for all commodities in tons. Rail freight flow is shown in all states. The heaviest density is shown in the Midwest, around the Great Lakes, into Wyoming, and in the South.

Slide 8: Rail Intermodal Flows, All Commodities (Rail freight density in tons)

U.S. map showing rail intermodal flows for all commodities in tons. Rail intermodal flow is shown in all states. The heaviest density is shown on networks from Chicago, through the Southwest, and to Southern California; from Chicago through the West to Northern California; and from Chicago to Washington state.

Slide 9: Domestic Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities (Waterway freight density in tons)

Map of North America showing freight flows by water for all commodities in tons. Most activity is shown along the Mississippi River system from the Gulf to the Great Lakes. Heavy activity also is shown between California and Washington ports and Alaska. Activity also is shown between the West Coast and Hawaii and along the East and Gulf Coasts.

Speaker Notes:

Heavy Mississippi River focus for inland waterway system.

Shipments also occur along the Great Lakes, and there exists a sizable movement of materials along the U.S. coasts.

The apparent flow to Latin America is actually Panama Canal traffic moving between the U.S. East and West Coasts.

Slide 10: Potential Congested Segments – 1998

Map of the U.S. National Highway System in 1998. Most of the nation's highways that approached or exceeded capacity were in urban areas. Most traffic on rural roads did not exceed designed capacity, although some rural segments, primarily those that link major urban areas, did experience congestion and corresponding loss in service.

Slide 11: Potential Congested Segments – 2010

Map of the U.S. National Highway System in 2010. Growth in traffic will result in additional congestion on the nation's highways. In 2010, most of the nation's urban highways either will approach or exceed capacity, and some rural segments also will experience higher vehicle volumes.

Slide 12: Potential Congested Segments – 2020

Map of the U.S. National Highway System in 2020. Growth in traffic will result in additional congestion on the nation's highways. In 2020, most of the nation's urban highways either will approach or exceed capacity, and rural Interstate segments that link major urban markets also will experience higher vehicle volumes.

Slide 13: Top U.S. Gateways for International Freight – Exports Imports in Tons

U.S. map showing top U.S. gateways for international freight imports and exports in tons. Most gateways show a greater share of exports than imports, except for gateways in Southern California, Canadian border states, and the New York City area. Areas of greatest import and export tonnage are areas around Southern California, New Orleans, Seattle, Richmond, and Detroit.

Speaker Notes:

Highlights our top gateways, land and water ports of entry; this highlights facilities of national significance for trade. The FAF seeks to provide information on both rail and truck crossings, but also the port landside access. The bottlenecks that exist at ports or border crossings need to be addressed to improve economic competitiveness and offset local congestion problems. For example, the Alemeda Corridor in Southern California, or the FAST program in Washington State are seeking to improve both freight mobility and urban traffic flows.

The Freight Office is engaged in many border activities, including simulating border facility construction, border and corridor programs, and encouraging technology deployment at border facilities to increase throughput. Information on these items is available on our website.

Slide 14: U.S.-Mexican Truck Traffic – 1998 (Tons)

Image Details

Slide 15: U.S.-Mexican Truck Traffic – 1998 (Tons)

U.S. map showing truck traffic networks between the U.S. and Mexico in tons for 1998. The largest volume in Mexico is shown between U.S. southern border states and mid-central Mexican provinces. The largest volume in the U.S. is shown in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Southern California, the Bay Area, and from Texas to New Orleans, Illinois, Indiana, and Washington, D.C.

Slide 16: US/Mexico Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)

U.S. map showing truck traffic between the U.S. and Mexico on the U.S. highway network in tons estimated for 2020. The largest volume is shown in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Southern California, the Bay Area, and from Texas to New Orleans, Illinois, Indiana, and Washington, D.C.

Speaker Notes:

Here is the subset of the traffic as it relates to U.S.-Mexican traffic in the year 2020.

Mexico is our number two trading partner. Free trade in the Americas will further spur Latin American trade and growth in traffic particularly through our southern gateways.

In previous slide, average annual compound growth for Mexico was 3.4% a year. This figure does not assume the movement of Mexican trucks on the U.S. system, but reflects the future activity of U.S.-Mexican freight on the nation's system.

Slide 17: US-Canadian Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)

U.S. map showing truck traffic between the U.S. and Canada on the U.S. highway network in tons estimated for 2020. The largest volume is shown on networks near Washington State gateways; between Chicago and Minnesota gateways, Detroit, and Buffalo; and between New York City and Vermont and Maine gateways.

Speaker Notes:

Earlier, the total U.S. truck flows were shown. Here is a view of U.S.-Canadian activity in the year 2020.

Canada is our largest trading partner; this slide shows the domestic legs of Canadian/US trade on the highway system in the year 2020. The key corridors remain important to the movement of U.S.-Canadian trade.

In previous slide, average annual compound growth for Canada was 3.1% a year.