FAF²: PROVISIONAL COMMODITY ORIGIN-DESTINATION ESTIMATES

REVISED METHODOLOGY REPORT

Submitted to

Office of Freight Management and Operations
Federal Highway Administration
Washington DC

Prepared by

In Association with

MacroSys Research and Technology

University of Tennessee

May 6, 2009

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF ACRONYMS

1.0 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Report Organization

2.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY HIGHWAY

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Principal Data Sources
• 2.3 Methodology for Domestic Freight
  • 2.3.1 Determine Annual Growth of Highway Freight at the National Level
    • 2.3.1.1 Freight Tonnage
    • 2.3.1.2 Highway Freight Value
  • 2.3.2 Estimate Growth Factors for Each O-D Pair by FAF Regions
    • 2.3.2.1 Determine Annual State Growth
    • 2.3.2.2 Estimate County Share of State Growth
    • 2.3.2.3 Estimate FAF Regional Growth
    • 2.3.2.4 Estimate Annual Growth Factors for Each O-D Pair of FAF Regions
  • 2.3.3 Estimate Growth of Highway Freight for Each FAF O-D Pair
  • 2.3.4 Determine the Provisional Freight Flow Estimates for Each FAF O-D Pair
• 2.4 Methodology for International Freight
  • 2.4.1 Methodology for International Highway Freight
    • 2.4.1.1 Preparing State Imports and Exports by Commodity and Port Detail
    • 2.4.1.2 Allocating Imports and Exports of Unknown State to the Fifty States and the District of Columbia
    • 2.4.1.3 Estimating Export Tonnage
    • 2.4.1.4 Converting Data from Transborder Port to FAF International Gateways
    • 2.4.1.5 Disaggregating State Imports and Exports into FAF Regions
    • 2.4.1.6 Converting Data from Harmonized Schedule (HS) to Standard Classification of Transportation Goods (SCTG)
  • 2.4.2 Value of Imports and Exports in Constant Dollars

3.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY AIR

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Air Freight Data Sources
  • 3.2.1 OAI Data
  • 3.2.2 Census Foreign Trade Data
  • 3.2.3 Further Notes on the Data
• 3.3 Combining Census and OAI Data
  • 3.3.1 Cross-Walks for Commodity and Geographic Information
  • 3.3.2 Estimating Flows by Weight
  • 3.3.3 Estimating Commodity Composition and Value
    • 3.3.3.1 International Routes
    • 3.3.3.2 Domestic Routes
• 3.4 Forecasting Data for the Remainder of the Year
  • 3.4.1 Forecasting the OAI Data for Tons Shipped
    • 3.4.1.1 Mathematical Specification of the Adjusted Tons and Forecasts
  • 3.4.2 Forecasting the Commodity Distribution and Price
    • 3.4.2.1 International Shipments
    • 3.4.2.2 Domestic Shipments
  • 3.4.3 Conclusion

4.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY RAIL

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Principal Data Sources for Rail Freight
• 4.3 Domestic Rail Flows
  • 4.3.1 Rail Flows to Deep-Draft Ports
• 4.4 Methodology for International Rail Freight
  • 4.4.1 Methodology for International Freight
  • 4.4.2 Transborder Rail Freight to and from Canada and Mexico by U.S. State and Port of Entry or Exit
  • 4.4.3 Determine State-Level Transborder Rail Freight to and from Canada and Mexico
    • 4.4.3.1 Imports
    • 4.4.3.2 Exports
    • 4.4.3.3 Initial Aggregation
  • 4.4.4 Disaggregate Estimates of Transborder Rail Freight by State to FAF-Level Estimates
    • 4.4.4.1 Imports
    • 4.4.4.2 Exports
  • 4.4.4 Disaggregate Estimates of Transborder Rail Freight by State to FAF-Level Estimates
    • 4.4.4.1 Imports
    • 4.4.4.2 Exports
  • 4.4.5 Allocate FAF-Level Flows to Ports
    • 4.4.5.1 Imports
    • 4.4.5.2 Exports
  • 4.4.6 Combine Import and Export Data
• 4.5 2008 Provisional Rail Estimates – Commentary on Methodology

5.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY WATER

• 5.1 Domestic Waterborne Freight
  • 5.1.1 Data Sources
  • 5.1.2 Methodology
    • 5.1.2.1 eight Estimates
    • 5.1.2.2 Value Estimates
• 5.2 International Waterborne Freight
  • 5.2.1 Data Sources
  • 5.2.2 Methodology

6.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY PIPELINE

• 6.1 Introduction
• 6.2 Data Sources
• 6.3 Estimation Methodology
  • 6.3.1 Domestic Movements by Pipeline
  • 6.3.2 International Movements by Pipeline

7.0 COMPILATION OF PROVISIONAL DATABASES

• 7.1 Introduction
• 7.2 Provisional Databases

8.0 CONCLUSIONS

9.0 REFERENCES

List of Appendices

APPENDIX A. COMPARISON OF DATA SOURCES AND FORECASTS

APPENDIX B. SAMPLE ESTIMATES FOR OAI INTERNATIONAL AVIATION DATA

List of Tables

• Table 4-1. Relationship between Employment, Demographic, and Rail Flow
• Table 4-2. FAF Commodity Definitions and PPI
• Table 4-3. 2008 Adjustment Factors
• Table 4-4. 2008 Tonnage Estimates by Commodity – Domestic File
• Table 4-5. Coal Production by State ('000 tons)
• Table 4-6. U.S. Coal Imports and Exports
• Table 6-1. Data Availability for Freight Movement by Pipeline
• Table A-1. A Comparison of the OAI and Customs Data with FAF
• Table A-2. Third Quarter Forecasts of Tons Enplaned by Foreign Carriers (in 1,000s)
• Table A-3. Fourth Quarter Forecasts of Tons Enplaned by All Carriers (in 1,000s)
• Table B-1. Round-by-Round Results for Estimating Domestic Ports of Entry/Exit for OAI International Aviation Data (2002)
• Table B-2. A Comparison between Census and OAI Data of Tonnage Shipped by Air (2002)

List of Figures

• Figure 6-1. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD)
• Figure 7-1. Provisional O-D Databases