Best Practices for Road Weather Management Version 2.0
Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts
All prediction is inherently uncertain and effective communication of uncertainty information in weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological forecasts benefits users' decisions. The chaotic character of the atmosphere, coupled with inevitable inadequacies in observations and computer models, results in forecasts that always contain uncertainties. These uncertainties generally increase with forecast lead time and vary with weather situation and location. Uncertaintly is thus a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. This report examines how to improve the generation, communication, and potential use of uncertainty information for hydrometeorological forecasts and makes recommendations for improvements.
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
National Research Council
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